{"id":22021,"date":"2025-10-01T11:03:03","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T09:03:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/2025\/10\/gecmisten-gelecege-bakmak\/"},"modified":"2025-10-08T17:35:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T15:35:08","slug":"gecmisten-gelecege-bakmak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/2025\/10\/gecmisten-gelecege-bakmak\/","title":{"rendered":"Ge\u00e7mi\u015ften gelece\u011fe bakmak"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Manfred von Wensierski ve Carl-Josef Testroet, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda otomotiv tahrik sistemlerindeki trendleri tahmin ettiler ve \u015fimdi o zamanki varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131lar.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Manfred von Wensierski ve Carl-Josef Testroet’in bir araya gelmesi s\u0131k rastlanan bir durum de\u011fildir. Wensierski uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r Wolfsburg’daki Otomotiv Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131’nda Volkswagen Kilit M\u00fc\u015fteri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yap\u0131yor. Testroet uzun bir s\u00fcre onun i\u015f arkada\u015f\u0131yd\u0131, ancak o zamandan beri emekli oldu. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n sonunda Testroet eski i\u015fyerini ziyaret etti. \u0130yi bir nedenle. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn iki derin uzman\u0131n\u0131n 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda birbirlerinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak m\u00fch\u00fcrledikleri iki zarf vard\u0131. <\/p>\n\n

O zamanlar her ikisi de bir ankette gelece\u011fe bakmaya cesaret ettiler: kristal k\u00fcrenin derinliklerine bakt\u0131lar ve otomotiv end\u00fcstrisinin – daha do\u011frusu bireysel tahrik tipleri i\u00e7in \u00fcretim rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n – \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde nas\u0131l geli\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ettiler. \u0130\u00e7ten yanmal\u0131 motora, \u00f6zellikle de dizele ne olacak? Tamamen elektrikli ve hibrit tahrikler genel olarak pazarda ve \u00f6zel olarak Volkswagen’de nas\u0131l bir rol oynayacak? <\/p>\n\n

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Gelece\u011fe bak\u0131\u015f: Manfred von Wensierski ve Carl-Josef Testroet 2017’de zarflar\u0131 m\u00fch\u00fcrledi.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

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“O zamanlar bu bir t\u00fcr bahisti, \u015fakayd\u0131, bilimsel bir tahmin de\u011fildi,” diye hat\u0131rl\u0131yor von Wensierski. Ancak, ikisi – ve t\u00fcm kilit m\u00fc\u015fteri ekibi – 2017’de yap\u0131lan tahminlerin 2025’teki ger\u00e7eklikten daha do\u011fru oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok heyecanl\u0131yd\u0131. <\/p>\n\n

Cevap: \u0130kisi de kelimenin ger\u00e7ek anlam\u0131yla birer falc\u0131 de\u011fildi. Ancak, biri d\u00f6rt soruyu da yan\u0131tlarken bug\u00fcn\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekli\u011fine di\u011ferinden \u00e7ok daha yak\u0131nd\u0131. <\/p>\n\n

Testroet’in tahminleri, o zamanki e-mobilite \u015f\u00fcphecili\u011fini yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r. Testroet, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda dizel ve benzinli motorlar\u0131 hala a\u00e7\u0131k ara \u00f6nde g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. G\u00fcncel istatistikler bunu yalanl\u0131yor. Avrupa’da ve d\u00fcnya genelinde m\u00fcnferit tahrik t\u00fcrlerinin pazar paylar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hibrit ve elektrikli ara\u00e7lar lehine de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015ftir. <\/p>\n\n

Von Wensierski, Avrupa’da dizel pazar pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20’nin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tahmininde isabet kaydetmi\u015fti. Ancak genel olarak hedefi biraz a\u015ft\u0131 ve 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda, m\u00fc\u015fterisi Volkswagen de dahil olmak \u00fczere, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar elektromobiliteye do\u011fru daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha yo\u011fun bir ge\u00e7i\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. <\/p>\n\n

\u0130lgin\u00e7 bir ger\u00e7ek: 2017’de iki ba\u015frol oyuncusu otomotiv end\u00fcstrisinin gelece\u011fine sadece sekiz y\u0131l ileriden bakmakla kalmad\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na da bakt\u0131. Bu iki zarf bu kez kapal\u0131 kald\u0131. Ancak be\u015f y\u0131l sonra a\u00e7\u0131lacak ve yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ger\u00e7eklikle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacak. <\/p>\n\n

Bu arada, von Wensierski’nin mevcut pazar de\u011ferlendirmesi \u015fu \u015fekildedir: “Elektromobiliteye y\u00f6nelik e\u011filim art\u0131k tersine \u00e7evrilemez, ancak i\u00e7ten yanmal\u0131 motorlar da \u00f6lmeyecektir.” Varsay\u0131m\u0131na g\u00f6re pazar daha da farkl\u0131la\u015facak. Bir \u00f6rnek: Wensierski’ye g\u00f6re \u00c7in’deki gen\u00e7lerin bir otomobilin teknolojisi, tasar\u0131m\u0131 ve ba\u011flanabilirli\u011fi ile ilgili beklentileri Avrupa’daki ya\u015fl\u0131lardan farkl\u0131. “\u00dcreticiler her b\u00f6lge ve her ara\u00e7 segmenti i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr farkl\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fteri gereksinimlerini kar\u015f\u0131lamal\u0131d\u0131r.” Ge\u00e7mi\u015fin ve bug\u00fcn\u00fcn \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru olmas\u0131 muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ama kim bilir…? <\/p>\n\n

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\r\n \r\n <\/i>\r\n <\/a>\r\n <\/span>\r\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Manfred von Wensierski ve Carl-Josef Testroet, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda otomotiv tahrik sistemlerindeki trendleri tahmin ettiler ve \u015fimdi o zamanki varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131lar. Manfred von Wensierski ve Carl-Josef Testroet’in bir araya gelmesi s\u0131k…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":21945,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[851,1224],"tags":[],"powerkit_post_featured":[],"class_list":["post-22021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-almanya","category-automotive-tr"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22021"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22021\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22023,"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22021\/revisions\/22023"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21945"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22021"},{"taxonomy":"powerkit_post_featured","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sw.fst.com\/magazine\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/powerkit_post_featured?post=22021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}